Fall of the Romaine Empire

Bill Gates plans to accelerate his foundation’s distribution of funds worldwide over the next 20 years. One reason for the urgency is that many of the programs that have been successful are being reversed by the new administration, with a lot of help from Elon Musk. “You could say this announcement is not very timely. Over the last 25 years, we achieved far more than I — or I think anyone — expected. The world invented new tools, we made them cheap, we got them out. We went from 10 million childhood deaths to five million. Over the next 20 years, can you cut that in half again? The answer is: Absolutely. But then you have this weird thing: In the next four years — or eight years, I don’t know — the actual money going into these causes is reduced, and reduced way beyond what I would have expected. On childhood deaths, which over the next few years should have gone from five million to four million — now, unless there’s a big reversal, we’ll probably go from five million to six million.” David Wallace-Wells in the NYT Magazine (Gift Article): The $200 Billion Gamble: Bill Gates’s Plan to Wind Down His Foundation. “You have to go to Africa and see a malaria ward at the height of the malaria season. Or you have to see kids who are stunted. And weirdly, the incredible success of the last 25 years is not as visible to people as it should be. But that also means that when people cut these things, will they notice? They cut the money to Gaza Province in Mozambique. That is really for drugs, so mothers don’t give their babies H.I.V. But the people doing the cutting are so geographically illiterate, they think it’s Gaza and condoms. Will they go meet those babies who got H.I.V. because that money was cut? Probably not. And so you say, OK, it’s going to be millions — Because of these cuts, millions of additional deaths of kids.”

+ Gates on Musk and his own philanthropy, or lack thereof. “Well, he’s the one who cut the U.S.A.I.D. budget. He put it in the wood chipper, because he didn’t go to a party that weekend … Who knows? He could go on to be a great philanthropist. In the meantime, the world’s richest man has been involved in the deaths of the world’s poorest children.” Maybe swinging around that chainsaw isn’t so cute after all.

In the most anticipated puff of smoke since Seth Rogen spent time in Snoop Dogg’s trailer, the smoke signal awaited by people across the world has officially been exhausted. Habemus papam. On the second day of the conclave, we’ve got a new pope: Robert Prevost, originally from Chicago. He’s the first American pontiff in history (he’s also a Peruvian citizen). He will be known as Leo XIV. “A leader with global experience, he spent much of his career as a missionary in South America and most recently led a powerful Vatican office for bishop appointments. He is expected to build on Pope Francis’ reforms.” (The celebrations will go on for days. When my temple gets a new rabbi, all they do it change the name on the parking spot.) Here’s the latest from CNN and BBC. (Coincidentally, a puff of smoke generally emerges from my man cave each time a new edition of NextDraft is published.)

“When citizens must think twice about criticizing or opposing the government because they could credibly face government retribution, they no longer live in a full democracy. By that measure, America has crossed the line into competitive authoritarianism.” Three political scientists with a detailed explanation of where we’re at (and where we don’t want to go). NYT (Gift Article): No One Has Ever Defeated Autocracy From the Sidelines. “Strategies of self-preservation have led too many civil society leaders to retreat into silence or acquiesce to authoritarian bullying. Small acts of acquiescence, framed as necessary defensive measures, feel like the only reasonable course. But this is the fatal logic of appeasement: the belief that quietly yielding in small, seemingly temporary ways will mitigate long-term harm.”

Peace With the UK? “”President Trump announced his first deal since launching a global trade war Thursday, unveiling a limited pact with the United Kingdom that would lower barriers on some goods like automobiles and agriculture while leaving many unanswered questions.” Trump announces his first trade deal with the UK. Here’s what’s in it. (Full trade deals take months to fully negotiate, but at least we have the concept of plan for a framework, and so far the market is reacting positively. We’ll probably get the details of the deal right around infrastructure week.) “The pact spurred cautious optimism on Wall Street, with stocks up and bonds down amid hopes that the agreement could be a blueprint. Trump cheered the market reaction, and predicted investors would be even more encouraged if Congress passes a law extending his tax cuts, comments that spurred the S&P 500 Index to extend gains to session highs, climbing about 1.5%. ‘If that happens, on top of all of these trade deals that we’re doing, this country will hit a point — you better go out and buy stocks now,’ he said.” (Editor’s note: Sell.) Bloomberg: Trump Announces Framework With UK, Lowering Trade Barriers. And more from the BBC.

+ Ed Sheering: “He’s a terrific person, and he wasn’t getting the support from people that I thought.” Trump says he’ll announce new pick for DC top prosecutor as controversial Ed Martin nomination falters. The “terrific person” was a big fan and defender of Jan 6, repeatedly praised a Nazi sympathizer, and appeared about 150 times on Russian propaganda outlets, in addition to having no qualifications for the job. And he barely didn’t make the cut.

+ Sinking to New Depths: “Extracting more water than can be replenished ‘can have a direct relationship with what happens on the surface … You can cause the ground to sink significantly.” NYT: Across America, Big Cities Are Sinking. Here’s Why. (So this is why I’ve had that sinking feeling for the last few months…)

+ Bank Run: “Israel conducted frequent military operations in this area in recent years, but its forces almost always left within hours or days. Since January, however, its military has maintained its longest-running presence in the heart of West Bank cities in decades.” NYT (Gift Article): The Huge, Under-the-Radar Shift Happening in the West Bank. (There’s a strong connection between what’s happening in the West Bank and what’s happening in the West Wing.)

+ We Need to Chat: “While professors may think they are good at detecting AI-generated writing, studies have found they’re actually not. One, published in June 2024, used fake student profiles to slip 100 percent AI-generated work into professors’ grading piles at a U.K. university. The professors failed to flag 97 percent. It doesn’t help that since ChatGPT’s launch, AI’s capacity to write human-sounding essays has only gotten better.” Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College.

+ Bad Idea Poorly Executed: Lawyers for man executed by firing squad in South Carolina say bullets mostly missed his heart.

+ Sprite Pops: “Sprite has long leaned on culture to market its brand, specifically basketball and hip-hop. It continues to do so today, updated for a modern audience.” How Sprite overtook Pepsi as America’s No. 3 soda.

“A doctor who claimed he hid cameras to film friends and colleagues in the bathroom due to concerns over the size of his penis has been jailed for 18 months. Anaesthetist Ju Young Um hid the recording devices in air fresheners and a smoke alarm in the bathroom and spare bedroom of his flat in Glasgow’s west end and in staff accommodation at Dumfries and Galloway Royal Infirmary. Um, 34, claimed he recorded 30 different people and used the footage to compare himself to other men.” (Has this guy heard of the internet?)