Investment Advice, Protest Arrest
Buy low, sell high. It’s the basic tenet of stock market investing. Usually, during down periods like the one we’re currently experiencing, smart money investors go bargain shopping. When the market as a whole goes down, it takes even high quality, thriving companies with it; which offers a opportunity to pick up quality shares at discounted prices. In a normal time, I’d tell my son (who just started dabbling in the stock market) that the market overreacts to bad news and this is a perfect moment to double-down on companies he believes in. But this is not a normal time. And this is not a normal presidency with the normal stable leadership we’ve come to expect from an American administration. And this, therefore, is not a normal market. At this point, the only investing advice I’d give my son or anyone else is that it might be a good time to go to the mattresses. I don’t mean that in The Godfather sense (although retreating to a hideout and laying low for four years doesn’t sound half bad). I mean it in the sense that the safest place to put your money right now might be under your mattress. At least until they figure out a way to put a tariff on that money, too. The truth is that no one can give you good advice on how to play this market because the situation is so unpredictable. The only sure investment in 2025 is grift. Meanwhile, with a great and stable market merely six weeks in the rearview mirror, we’re getting headlines like these: Stock Rout Picks Up Steam With Recession Warnings Blaring, The Dow plunges 900 points — and the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are bleeding even worse, and Stocks tank as Trump declines to dismiss recession risk.
+ Trump’s reaction to the 401KO? “You can’t really watch the stock market.” That might sound strange considering the fact that Trump spent much of the Biden era attacking him over the performance of the stock market, starting with a presidential debate in which he explained: “If he’s elected, the stock market will crash.” (I guess it just took a while?)
+ Even crypto, seemingly the surest thing bet of the Trump economy, is sucking wind.
+ And we’re not just talking about the stock market. “President Trump inherited an economy that was, by most conventional measures, firing on all cylinders. Wages, consumer spending and corporate profits were rising. Unemployment was low. The inflation rate, though higher than normal, was falling.” NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook.
+ Starving the investor class may not be part of the plan. Starving the government most certainly is. NYT (Gift Article): Stalled Audits and a Skeleton Staff: Inside Trump’s War on the I.R.S.
+ “It was the Gilded Age, a time of rapid population growth and transformation from an agricultural economy toward a sprawling industrial system, when poverty was widespread while barons of phenomenal wealth, like John D. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan, held tremendous sway over politicians who often helped boost their financial empires.” AP with some of the backstory about Trump’s tariffs. Trump loves the Gilded Age and its tariffs. “Experts on the era say Trump is idealizing a time rife with government and business corruption, social turmoil and inequality. They argue he’s also dramatically overestimating the role tariffs played …’The most astonishing thing for historians is that nobody in the Gilded Age economy — except for the very rich — wanted to live in the Gilded Age economy.'”
This a (Pro)Test
Full disclosure: Although I am a pro-two state, anti-Netanyahu liberal on matters related to Israel, most of the campus protests (some of which celebrated Hamas and many of which started before Israel even responded to the Oct 7th attacks) upset me deeply, the way they morphed into antisemitism sickened me, and the passivity with which some colleges responded to that antisemitism confounded me. And given that the protests (along with the constant haranguing of Kamala Harris on the campaign trail) helped turn the election for Trump who now suggests remaking Gaza as a resort, one could argue that this movement was the one of the most counterproductive in history. All that said, we should all be worried about an American government clamping down on free speech and threatening higher education in ways that will not stop at the targeting a few of the most ardent campus agitators. Of course, anyone who intimidates people or acts violently at a protest should be held to account. But in this case, it’s not just about what’s happening in terms of law enforcement. It’s about who’s doing it. ICE arrests Palestinian activist who helped lead Columbia University protests. “Federal immigration authorities arrested a Palestinian activist Saturday who played a prominent role in Columbia University’s protests against Israel, a significant escalation in the Trump administration’s pledge to detain and deport student activists … ‘As ICE agents arrived at Khalil’s Manhattan residence Saturday night, they also threatened to arrest Khalil’s wife, an American citizen who is eight months pregnant.'” Trump said, “This is the first arrest of many to come.” Meanwhile, “a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, confirmed Khalil’s arrest in a statement Sunday, describing it as being ‘in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism.'” (As a Jew, orders prohibiting anti-semitism would be a lot more believable coming from a group that heiled a little less often…)
+ Again, this is about a lot more than Khalil and protestors. Harvard Freezes Hiring Amid Anxiety Over Trump.
Coming Down With Something
“America is walking away from global health leadership, making the entire world less safe—including us.” Americans vastly overestimate the amount of money our government spends on foreign aid and we vastly underestimate the extent to which that money is spent on programs that ultimately benefit Americans. We may find out the hard way. Craig Spencer in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Diseases Are Coming. (Today, Marco Rubio announced the official cancelation of 83% of USAID programs.)
+ And if the diseases come, what will the diseases find? A population increasingly dubious of vaccines and science. WSJ (Gift Article): In Rural Texas, a Measles Outbreak Hasn’t Swayed Vaccine Skeptics. “Despite a child’s death, residents say personal choice—not public-health policy—should guide their decisions.”
Guac and Awe
“When we hear tariffs, we think of avocados. This is how a Mexican import conquered the U.S. market … It’s a tale of economics, geopolitics, marketing, government legislation, scientific advances, dietary trends—and weevils.” WSJ (Gift Article): Why America Now Eats a Crazy Number of Avocados. To paraphrase the great Erma Bombeck: If Life Is a Bowl of Avocados – What Am I Doing in the Pits?
Extra, Extra
Friendship Put on Ice: “Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form … We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves, so the Americans, they should make no mistake: In trade as in hockey, Canada will win.” 5 things to know about Mark Carney, Canada’s next prime minister. As I mentioned last week, Canada (our ally, neighbor, and friend) is now consumed with the threat posed by the US. Blame Canada. Meanwhile, Canada’s Moosehead Brewery is selling a crate of 1,461 beers to help Canadians survive the next 4 years. (You’re gonna need something stronger…)
+ Let’s Take This Offline: Want to better understand the tech overlords who are now coming for terrestrial life? Kara Swisher has been covering them for decades. Move Fast and Destroy Democracy. “Musk’s behavior is emblematic of tech’s most heinous figures, who now feel emboldened to enter the analog world with the same lack of care and arrogance with which they built their sloppy platforms.”
+ Social Insecurity: “They came in aggressively, a former official who witnessed Elon Musk’s team take over the Social Security Administration said, demanding access to sensitive taxpayer data and refusing briefings on how the agency ensures the accuracy of its benefit systems. They recklessly exposed data in unsecured areas outside Social Security offices, the official said, potentially disclosing personally identifiable information on almost every American to people not authorized to see it.” Former Social Security official describes hostile takeover by Musk team.
+ Ruth and Truth: Democracy dies in darkness continues to read more like a directive than a slogan. WaPo Columnist Ruth Marcus Quits Paper After 40 Years Over ‘Spiked’ Column on Jeff Bezos. In related news: Donald Trump’s ‘The Apprentice’ Seasons 1-7 to Stream on Amazon Prime Video.
+ Man Down: “The researchers were able to pinpoint the reasons why. The biggies: cardiovascular disease, cancer, opioid use, and suicide. COVID didn’t help matters either.” GQ: The Longevity Gap Between Men and Women Is Getting Bigger.
+ The Religious War, Continued: “The Supreme Court announced on Monday that it will hear Chiles v. Salazar, a challenge to a Colorado law preventing most mental health professionals from offering conversion therapy.”
+ Good Sports: “As we bid farewell to the first quarter of the 21st century, there’s no time better than now to celebrate the moments in this era of sports that stand above the rest—the ones that brought tears to eyes, left jaws on floors, and exemplified why we all spend so much time watching this stuff.” The Ringer: The 100 Best Sports Moments of the Quarter Century. (I’ve watched at least a quarter century of sports since Jan 20th.)
+ Does She or Doechii? “The rising rapper Doechii has earned the title of Billboard’s 2025 Woman of the Year, landing her in the same company as Taylor Swift, SZA, and Lady Gaga.” This comes just days after an even more monumental achievement: An inclusion in NextDraft’s Weekend Whats.
Bottom of the News
Over the weekend, my family went out to lunch to celebrate my aunt’s 99th birthday. The subject of today’s bottom of the news was one of our topics of discussion. Let’s see how many of my family members read today’s edition! Is the viral ‘let them’ theory really that simple? “Even if you haven’t listened to The Mel Robbins Podcast, or bought one of Robbins’s books, you’ve probably been exposed to her work online. She’s the person getting women on social media to make their beds every morning and high-five themselves in the mirror. Most popular is her viral two-word phrase, ‘let them.’ The advice is as simple as it sounds: Your teenager wants to dye their hair? Let them. Your spouse is wearing a shirt you don’t like? Let them. You think your co-workers are gossiping about you? Let them.” (They want to manage your stock portfolio for the next four years? Let them…)
